Crystal Ball simulation program; Risk and uncertainty analyses; Descriptive statistics, such as mean, standard deviation, interquartile range, skewness, etc; Monte Carlo analysis (a standard technique for simulating real-world situations involving elements uncertainty elements); Sensitivity analysis for determining the relationships between the assumptions and the forecasts; Simulation modeling process, such as identify problem, build/revise model, add/revise assumptions, etc; Distributions and how to model discreet or continuous random variables (fitting data to distributions using Latin Hypercube and Monte Carlo sampling); Crystal Ball tools, such as batch fit, correlation matrix, and tornado chart tools; Two- dimensional Simulation and presentation of results

Objectives

At the end of the course, participants will be able to:

  • Use Crystal Ball® (CB) to make better decisions
  • Design simulation models of realistic situations
  • Select appropriate probability distributions as inputs
  • Apply basic statistical concepts to simulation outputs
  • Communicate CB results effectively

Participants

Crystal Ball is for strategic planners, financial analysts, engineers, scientists, entrepreneurs, marketing managers, venture capitalists, consultants, and anyone who uses spreadsheets to forecast uncertain results.

Pre-requisites

  • Using Microsoft Word and Excel
  • Experience in probabilistic simulation is desirable

KISR is a pioneering, independent, national institute of scientific excellence. KISR’s initial role was dedicated to developing three fields of national importance: petroleum, desert agriculture, and marine biology. Since then, KISR’s role and responsibilities have expanded greatly to include the advancement of national industry and the undertaking of studies to address key challenges, such as the preservation of the environment, sustainable management of Kuwait’s natural resources, responsible management of water and energy, and development of innovative methods of agriculture.

KISR’s approach to meeting challenges is distinguished by a culture of openness, a commitment to our clients, and an integrated, cross-disciplinary approach. KISR routinely embarks on strategic partnerships with other regional and international institutes, agencies, and academic bodies, allowing an exchange of knowledge and expertise. Today, KISR is home to over 580 researchers and engineers and over 100 laboratories, housed at 8 locations, with growth expected through the implementation of a new strategic plan. KISR conducts scientific research and performs technological consultations, often in partnership with other regional and international institutions, for governmental and industrial clients in Kuwait, the Gulf region, and the rest of the world. These partnerships, driven by a philosophy of collaboration that runs deep within our culture, help build up our knowledge base, and facilitate the free flow of information, data, and expertise. This adds value to our clients’ business and ensures that the resources needed to confront the challenges They face are always available on demand.

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