Predict the future like a sage

Course details

In eight sessions you learn the intermediate skills of sales forecasting. Advanced forecasting software packages can be daunting. We cut to the chase. Watch forecasts be performed, explained and analyzed in real time. Learn how to:

• Use ARIMA, a forecasting method we regard as mandatory for every intermediate forecaster.
• Improve forecasting data quality through the use of field tests and dummy variables.
• Create ARMAX models, which tend to be far more accurate than multiple linear regressions.
• Handicap or create confidence intervals for your forecasts.

Each chapter includes:

• A pdf copy of the material.
• Quizzes to help you master the lecture.
• A glossary of terms used in the lecture.
• Notes, or the instructor's script.

The course includes:

• 9 Excel file downloads, including the actual data, charts and formulas used in the lecture.
• 6 exercises to help you apply the material to your own real-world situation.

We are confident that mastery of the concepts provided in this course will significantly increase your forecast accuracy. The result: fewer stock-outs, higher sales, and lower inventory costs.

We suspect you can't find a more succinct yet effective way to learn best-in-class intermediate sales forecasting.

A summary of the eight lectures is provided below:

1. Review: Speed through all the key points of the Fundamentals course. If you pass the test, you are ready to proceed.
2. ARIMA Results: Exponential smoothing is the benchmark, but ARIMA sometimes outperforms. Learn a basic technique for finding effective ARIMA settings.
3. ARIMA Details: Learn how chart analysis can be used to find ARIMA settings. See it done live in Stata.
4. Field Tests: Most forecasters are method-centric: they focus on forecasting models. But what about the data you use for forecasting? Learn how to dramatically increase forecast accuracy by creating causal variables that have a proven causal impact on sales volume.
5. ARMAX: Learn how to use ARIMA with multiple independent variables (called ARMAX forecasting). Learn how to create dummy variables. Start-to-finish example (using Stata) shows remarkable accuracy. Download source Excel and Stata files.
6. Economic Variables: Sometimes economic variables seem like attractive forecasting variables. Learn how to determine whether they will help or hinder.
7. Handicapping: Never submit a forecast without a confidence range. Learn how to incorporate corporate risk and strategy considerations to create effective handicaps.
8. Pitfalls: Sometimes it really helps to have an expert tell you what to avoid. So we do.