Plant Reliability: Modelling, Analysis and Prediction

Course details

High plant reliability is critical for every successful company, and it has never been more important than it is in the present economic climate.

The costs associated with equipment downtime and reduced production can be significant, and engineers must ensure that you are using every possible means of maximising plant reliability and performance. Of the five fundamental ways in which engineers can approach the maintenance of plant, one of the least commonly used (because it is least commonly understood) is Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM).

The heart of an RCM approach is the creation and exploitation of reliability models which use previous failure data to predict future plant performance and hence permit the selection of a maintenance strategy and frequency optimisation of planned maintenance activities. Reliability modelling as part of an integrated maintenance strategy is an approach that can no longer be sidelined or ignored by high performing companies.

This programme is a combination of instructor-led topic areas and extensive computer-based analysis and modelling. You will learn in detail about, and practice using, best-of-breed approaches to statistical failure data analysis and reliability modelling. Furthermore, throughout the programme you will have the opportunity to analyse your own data and to ask lots of questions about how best to apply reliability analysis and modelling techniques in your organisation.

The programme delivers many practically-based technical solutions to reliability improvement, and delegates will discuss these concepts and practice using them via a range of practical tools applied to real-world case studies and data.

PROGRAMME OBJECTIVES

• Explore and understand the power contained in maintenance history records (failure data), and how this can be harnessed using statistical approaches to improve maintenance (and hence overall plant) performance
• Analyse failure data using a range of first principles and industry standard methods, all implemented in Microsoft Excel
• Understand failure mode shape analysis and thereafter to extract failure mode shapes from history record data and use this to optimise Planned Maintenance (PM) activities
• Understand the theory and application of reliability modelling
• Apply the theory of reliability modelling to a range of practical case studies, using the teaching version of an industry standard reliability modelling software package
• Develop from first principles a practical and comprehensive reliability modelling and statistical analysis toolbox in Microsoft Excel, and use this to analyse numerous practical case studies
• Use reliability models to predict future spare parts requirements and the proportions of maintenance time that will be spent in reactive (breakdown) and proactive (PM/PPM) maintenance  activities
• Explore the implementation of a Reliability Centred Maintenance approach as part of a modern maintenance management strategy, including a detailed cost-benefits analysis of a real application

TRAINING METHODOLOGY

This programme is delivered using a combination of instructor-led topic areas and extensive hands-on computer based activities, which will give delegates the opportunity to model and analyse real plant data (including their own if they choose to bring it).

Reliability models will be developed in a leading reliability analysis package, and also in Microsoft Excel, which will be used to analyse real data.

Delegates will actually write their own modelling software in Excel and will use this to explore a wide range of reliability modelling methods. They will also compare the performance of their own models with that of sector leading software packages.

The software that delegates write will be fully functioning and highly capable, and will enable them to perform detailed reliability analyses of their own plant at any time in the future.

PROGRAMME SUMMARY

By attending,or sending your staff on this programme you will achieve:

• Lower life cycle costs for equipment
• More reliable equipment
• Lower maintenance costs
• Better planning
• Improved team working between maintenance and production
• Increased equipment performance

and participants will achieve:

• Strategies aligned to the business goals
• Introduction to the latest tools and techniques
• Exposure to best practices drawn from a range of different industries
• Methodology to enable successful permanent changes
• Application of the most appropriate reliability analysis and modelling techniques
• Detailed understanding of reliability modelling and related statistical analysis

PROGRAMME OUTLINE

Maintenance strategies and the power of historical data

• Fundamental approaches to maintenance
• Formulating a maintenance strategy
• The importance of maintenance history records
• Understanding plant performance
• An introduction to the statistical analysis of failure data
• The principles of failure data analysis
• Industry standard measures of reliability (Availability, MTBF, MTTR, etc)
• Extensive hands-on experience
• Open discussion

Statistical analysis of failure data

• Pareto analysis, rank order charts and standard deviation
• Linear regression models and determining model accuracy
• Failure mode analysis
• Interpreting failure mode shapes
• Extracting failure mode shapes from real data
• Optimising PM activity using mode shape analysis
• Knowing when to use a breakdown maintenance approach
• Extensive hands-on experience
• Open discussion

Reliability models and approaches to modelling

• The principles of RCM and reliability modelling
• Developing a reliability model
• Weibull statistics and the range of Weibull models (2 parameter, 3 parameter, maximum likelihood, maximum accuracy)
• The Weibull curve and plotting data on a Weibull scale
• Defining parameters: shape, scale, mean life, minimum life, characteristic life, standard deviation
• Model accuracy assessment (observed model accuracy and hypothesis rejection)
• Interpreting model results
• Confidence levels and Weibull critical values
• Key graphical functions:

            - The reliability function: survival probability

            - The cumulative distribution function

            - The failure probability density function

            - The failure rate function

• Extensive hands-on experience
• Open discussion

Cost based maintenance and the basis of a reliability toolbox

• Converting reliability model data into cost based maintenance decisions
• Optimising PM activity based on cost and by using reliability predictions (note that the programme will NOT cover the costing of maintenance activities, but will assume that this information is already known)
• Calculating the cheapest PM interval for age-based replacement policies
• Graphing costs versus PM interval
• Predicting future failures
• Predicting spares utilisation
• Development of the key components of a reliability toolbox
• Extensive hands-on experience
• Open discussion

The finalisation of a comprehensive reliability toolbox in Excel

• The cost of maintenance convenience and making informed maintenance optimisation decisions
• Incorporating real world effects within reliability models
• Specifying the PM interval and understanding the implications of doing this
• Completing the reliability toolbox
• Graphing toolbox results
• Toolbox testing and comparison of results with best-of-breed modelling software
• Extensive hands-on experience
• Overall review of concepts learned and how they can be applied in practice