Macroeconomic Forecasting (MF)

Course details

Target Audience:

Mid to senior-level officials involved in developing forecasts that are used in the design and implementation of macroeconomic policy.

Qualification:

Participants should have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. They should also be comfortable using software for econometric applications such as EViews.

Language:

The course is conducted in English only. Due to the technical nature of the course, English proficiency is a prerequisite.

Course Description:

This course presented by the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) staff, aims to strengthen participants’ macroeconomic forecasting and modeling skills through the application of modern econometric techniques. Lectures are designed to include a discussion of underlying theory, live presentations of empirical analyses on a personal computer, and hands-on learning by participants in a computer lab. The course focuses on four aspects of empirical model building and forecasting, such as:

• Data and model properties, including stationarity, non-stationarity and co-integration;
• Dynamic specification, including the use of error correction models;
• Model evaluation and model design;
• Forecast uncertainty, forecasting for policy, and policy analysis; and
• Combination forecasts.